Efectos potenciales del cambio climático en los recursos forestales. La sabanización de las regiones continentales de México

Abstract

Climate change will create a decoupling between plant communities or biomes and climate to which they are adapted. The suitable climate habitat of temperate biomes will decrease and those of dry climates will expand. The slow rate of natural migration of plant biomes will prevent them to remain coupled with their suitable climate habitat. This adaptive lag will induce a forest decay, which is already happening, particularly in the xeric limit of each species. There will be a simplification of vegetation, probably in a type similar to a savannah. The interior lands of Mexico will be most affected, as the inner slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. This will be a threat to biodiversity, environmental services and agriculture; maybe only cattle under extensive grazing will be benefited by the opening of new pastures. It requires realign populations of forest species to the climates to which they are adapted, through assisted migration. national programs for adaptation can be designed, including provisions to ensure water resources and agriculture, and protect areas affected by drought and desertification. The systems and mechanisms used by indigenous communities for adapting to several types of change should be a central component of any National adaptation strategy, if it seeks to be successful.